predictions

Ever since I read Taleb's Black Swan and Fooled By Randomness I've had a heightened awareness of the limitations of our attempts to predict the future, and our tendency to post-rationalise events, create false narratives and illusions around our own influence and control. Prediction is difficult.

"2000 will be the year of free Internet" (IDC)

"2001 will be the year of the Internet appliance." (Chicago Tribune).

When I started to look at predictions for a living back in 2006, I remember how 2011 was this big banner year against which most forecasts were made. I guess partly it was because 2011 was at the end of a five-year horizon, and partly because it was conveniently removed into the next decade. Whatever the reason, I've been patiently waiting for this year to arrive to check back on some of the more feisty predictions made in the outset of the 2.0 boom. And now this time has come.

One of the most interesting parts of my job is working wirth each January to curate what the firm sees as the key trends that we think our clients and teams need to think about in the year ahead. This is the second time Steve and I collaborated on this effort. What I really like about our 2011 effort is that we don't just gaze into the crystal ball but we provide actionable insights along with recommendations on what you should be doing.

I like Millward Brown reports. There is nothing radically that new in their predictions for 2011 but it is worth a quick read.

Because of my interest in Web video (quick plug for my web video production company InTwoFocus and my Web video blog) it was good to see that the expectations for video advertising are a continuing move in the upward direction.