predictions

Driving By Looking in the Rear-View Mirror

It's predictions time of year again. And like most things there's already the good and the not so good. I was rather taken with this comment from Seth Godin on a post by Fred Wilson about a talk by Forrester CEO, George Colony at last week's Le Web conference. Colony talked about the 'death of the web' and how 'social' is reaching saturation meaning the emergence of 'post-social' (le sigh).
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When Computer Science and Neuroscience Intersect

The potential that lies at the intersection of computer science and neuroscience is outlined in a new, quite literally mind-blowing book, The Two-Second Advantage: How We Succeed by Anticipating the Future—Just Enough by Vivek Ranadivé and Kevin Maney. It’s my pleasure to introduce this work to you in this the first post of the book’s Post2Post Virtual Book Tour.*

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Social Business: the Current Situation and Future Predictions (infographic)

Guest Post by: Ruari Grigg

As shown in the infographic below produced by agency Get Satisfaction, there are some astonishing figures about where executives believe social business will take us over the next few years:

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1% Makes a Lot of Difference

A report has just been published in the US called the: “The Potential Impact of the Great Recession on Future Retirement Incomes.”

I really wished we had an institution attempting the same type of research in the UK.

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A Better Forecast

As I write this essay, today's weather forecast is for a high of 75 and a low of 61. I have no idea what that means.

It's going to be nice, for sure, but will it be 75 this morning or sometime later in the day? Will it be 75 for a while or only a brief moment? 75 to 61 is a 14-degree range, so is the spread dramatic or not? Does 75 feel almost like 80, or more like 70? Something in the low 60s isn't necessarily warm but coolish, right?

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Predicting the Unpredictable

Ever since I read Taleb's Black Swan and Fooled By Randomness I've had a heightened awareness of the limitations of our attempts to predict the future, and our tendency to post-rationalise events, create false narratives and illusions around our own influence and control. Prediction is difficult.

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Ten Years of "This Will Be The Year Of"

"2000 will be the year of free Internet" (IDC)

"2001 will be the year of the Internet appliance." (Chicago Tribune).

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Things That Should Have Happened By 2011

When I started to look at predictions for a living back in 2006, I remember how 2011 was this big banner year against which most forecasts were made. I guess partly it was because 2011 was at the end of a five-year horizon, and partly because it was conveniently removed into the next decade. Whatever the reason, I've been patiently waiting for this year to arrive to check back on some of the more feisty predictions made in the outset of the 2.0 boom. And now this time has come.

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11 Actionable Trends for 2011

One of the most interesting parts of my job is working wirth each January to curate what the firm sees as the key trends that we think our clients and teams need to think about in the year ahead. This is the second time Steve and I collaborated on this effort. What I really like about our 2011 effort is that we don't just gaze into the crystal ball but we provide actionable insights along with recommendations on what you should be doing.

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Millward Brown Digital Predictions for 2011

I like Millward Brown reports. There is nothing radically that new in their predictions for 2011 but it is worth a quick read.

Because of my interest in Web video (quick plug for my web video production company InTwoFocus and my Web video blog) it was good to see that the expectations for video advertising are a continuing move in the upward direction.

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