by: Iqbal Mohammed

A long while ago, Leland Maschmeyer (posting at his erstwhile blog 'Whistle Through Your Comb') had put forth the idea of prediction markets substituting for advertising pre-testing. As a self-confessed believer of prediction markets-for-everything, I initially found the idea interesting but implausible. Leland and I exchanged mails and comments - and put the idea aside.

But the possibility intrigued me - and I kept returning to it, trying to find ways to make the contraption work. The result is the following whitepaper which outlines a new totally new model for ad pre-testing using prediction markets.

Here's an abstract of the paper :

"The fundamental principles behind current advertising pre-testing models have hardly changed in the past few decades. This paper argues that it’s time to update the discipline with contemporary paradigms of collaborative thinking and decision-making. Using the thinking behind prediction markets, the paper constructs a completely revamped model for ad pre-testing – offering another avenue for advertisers seeking precious market information, while also clarifying the role played by traditional ad pre-testing.

You can download the paper here:

I would love to hear comments and views.

[The word cloud at the beginning of the post is Wordle summary of the entire paper.]

PS : A webliography of the references in the paper:
Goodbye Innovation by Frederik Sarnblad
Workers, Place Your Bets Businessweek, August 3rd 2006
Hollywood Games People Play Businessweek, August 7th 2006
Predictive Markets Better Than Ad Testing? by Leland Maschmeyer
Is the Link pre-test the equivalent of the Smith & Wesson Magnum 500? by Nigel Hollis
Great Quotes for Planners #22 - Huxley on pre-testing by Jason Lonsdale
Great Quotes for Planners #41 -Akio Morita on pre-testing by Jason Lonsdale
Arnold creatives show us just what they think of focus groups by Ed Cotton
Pre-testing by Jason Oke
In defense of pre-testing by Nigel Hollis
Pre-testing, part II by Jason Oke
WIRED 15.07: 'The Human Advantage’ by Clive Thompson

Original Post: http://www.misentropy.com/2008/09/a-whitepaper-outlining-an-ad-pre-testing-model-based-on-prediction-markets.html

Leave a Comment